JP Morgan has revised its forecast for Panama’s economic growth in 2024, increasing it from 0.5% to 3.5% year-on-year. This adjustment reflects a reduced risk of credit downgrade amid Panama’s slow recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, which had raised concerns about losing its investment grade.
Despite ongoing challenges, JP Morgan notes positive developments, suggesting a lower risk of a credit downgrade. This contrasts with Fitch Ratings’ downgrade in March. Attention now turns to upcoming evaluations by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.
Panama’s real GDP growth in 2023 was a robust 7.3%, surpassing initial estimates by major international organizations. For 2024, the IMF and World Bank forecast a 2.5% growth, while ECLAC estimates 3.0%. These figures underscore Panama’s economic resilience, albeit indicating a gradual recovery.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance of Panama projects a 2.5% growth rate for 2024, with key economic sectors expected to grow at 5.6%. This growth will be driven by the continued development of sectors such as finance, agriculture, and manufacturing.
Panama’s economy has shown a remarkable ability to recover and adapt, supported by robust infrastructure and government sustainability policies. Investments in airport, port, and road expansions signal the country’s commitment to strengthening its tourism sector and other strategic areas.
In summary, while Panama faces challenges, the economic outlook is optimistic. JP Morgan’s 3.5% growth projection for 2024, along with forecasts from other international bodies, highlights the country’s recovery capacity and long-term growth potential. Supported by a strong economic foundation and sustainable development commitment, Panama’s economy is on a path to recovery.
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